All-In Podcast

I believe the world is changing in big ways that haven’t happened before in our lifetimes but have many times in history, so I knew I needed to study past changes to understand what is happening now and help me to anticipate what is likely to happen. 

I shared what I learned in my book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, and my hope is that this animation gives people an easy way to understand the key ideas from the book in a simple and entertaining way. In the first 18 minutes, you’ll get the gist of what drives the “Big Cycle” of rise and decline of nations through time and where we now are in that cycle. If you give me 20 minutes more to watch the whole thing, and I will show you how the big cycle worked across the last 500 years of history—and what the current world leading power, the United States, needs to do to remain strong.

I hope you find it valuable and look forward to hearing your thoughts. 

You can buy the book on Amazon (https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/dp/1982160276/?maas=maas_adg_7DC54053C269F971F2D2F3288B35474D_afap_abs&ref_=aa_maas&tag=maas) or in bookstores nationwide. 

Key Sections: 
1:33 - How I Learned to Anticipate the Future by Studying the Past 
8:00 - Changing Orders 
11:38 - The Big Cycle 
18:26 - 500 Years of Big Cycles 
18:45 - The Rise
26:16 - The Top 
32:01- The Decline 
39:39 - The Future

----------------------------------------

For more from Ray:
Principles | #1 New York Times Bestseller: https://amzn.to/2JMewHb
Principles for Success, distills Principles into an easy-to-read and entertaining format for readers of all ages: https://amzn.to/34lgnNJ
Download his free app: https://principles.app.link/PFS
Connect with him on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/raydalio
Follow him on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/raydalio
Follow him on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/
Follow him on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/raydalio/
Follow him on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@principlesbyraydalio

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

In this unedited conversation with head of TED Chris Anderson, Elon Musk digs into the recent news around his bid to purchase Twitter and gets honest about the biggest regret of his career, how his brain works, the future he envisions for the world and a lot more.

If you love watching TED Talks like this one, become a TED Member to support our mission of spreading ideas: http://ted.com/membership

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Facebook: http://facebook.com/TED
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ted-conferences
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tedtoks

The TED Talks channel features talks, performances and original series from the world's leading thinkers and doers. Subscribe to our channel for videos on Technology, Entertainment and Design — plus science, business, global issues, the arts and more. Visit http://TED.com to get our entire library of TED Talks, transcripts, translations, personalized talk recommendations and more.

TED's videos may be used for non-commercial purposes under a Creative Commons License, Attribution–Non Commercial–No Derivatives (or the CC BY – NC – ND 4.0 International) and in accordance with our TED Talks Usage Policy (https://www.ted.com/about/our-organization/our-policies-terms/ted-talks-usage-policy). For more information on using TED for commercial purposes (e.g. employee learning, in a film or online course), please submit a Media Request at https://media-requests.ted.com

Elon Musk talks Twitter, Tesla and the future at TED2022

Annual letter drop 💧 2021 edition

-- Performance 💰
-- How to be a GOAT founder 🐐
-- Inflation 💸
-- End of US hegemony? 🇺🇸
-- Fixing the “human” balance sheet 💪
-- Demographic time bomb ⏰
-- Markets 📈

Link: https://t.co/R0zvvYMWH4

Chamath Palihapitiya on Twitter

Content Discussed by the Besties

Jason Calacanis is an angel investor, entrepreneur, and co-host of All-In Podcast and This Week in Startups. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
- Brave: https://brave.com/lex
- Linode: https://linode.com/lex to get $100 free credit
- Four Sigmatic: https://foursigmatic.com/lex and use code LexPod to get up to 60% off
- Rev: https://rev.ai/lex to get 7-day free trial

EPISODE LINKS:
Jason's Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jason
Jason's Website: https://calacanis.com/
Jason's YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/ThisWeekIn
Jason's Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/calacanis
All-In Podcast: https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
This Week in Startups Podcast: https://thisweekinstartups.com/about/

PODCAST INFO:
Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast
Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8
RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/
Full episodes playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4
Clips playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOeciFP3CBCIEElOJeitOr41

OUTLINE:
0:00 - Introduction
1:51 - WallStreetBets and Robinhood
12:58 - How does the WallStreetBets saga end?
16:09 - Capitalism
21:30 - Ideas vs Execution
22:37 - Learning to learn
28:05 - Risk-aversion
34:06 - Robinhood
42:33 - Parler and AWS
44:58 - Social networks
51:32 - Leadership
56:21 - Work-life balance
1:04:43 - Great leaders lead by example
1:12:29 - Advice for startup founders
1:16:56 - Clubhouse
1:17:42 - When will we fully re-open the economy
1:28:19 - Augmented reality
1:31:47 - When should a startup raise money?
1:38:43 - David Goggins
1:40:40 - Disagreement with Chamath Palihapitiya
1:53:52 - Story about Elon Musk's darkest moments
2:02:07 - Friendship

SOCIAL:
- Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman
- Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LexFridmanPage
- Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman
- Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman
- Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/lexfridman
- Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman

Jason Calacanis: Startups, Angel Investing, Capitalism, and Friendship | Lex Fridman Podcast #161

JCal

As Tesla's profits and prices grabbed headlines last week, a potentially pivotal development for the global car industry flew largely under the radar.

Iron man Elon Musk places his Tesla battery bets | Reuters

Three Bitmain Antminer S9 mining rigs will run 24 hours a day, seven days a week, in the climate-controlled information technology wing of Fort Worth City Hall.

Fort Worth, TX the first city in the U.S. to mine bitcoin

The most common error in economics journalism.

Imports do not subtract from GDP - by Noah Smith

European officials denounced Russia’s move to halt gas to Poland and Bulgaria, which threatens the continent’s energy supply.

Russian Gas Stoppages Spur Europe’s Race for New Energy Supplies - WSJ

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

The proposal’s prominence has less to do with its merits than with college graduates’ agenda-setting power.

Who Really Benefits From Student-Loan Forgiveness? - The Atlantic

Invoking the First Amendment in content moderation debates is just good marketing for lax content moderation

Why Are Reporters So Opposed to "Free Speech"?

The death of San Francisco - by Alex Berenson

Criminal-justice reform takes time, but voters might be running out of patience.

Why California Wants to Recall Its Most Progressive Prosecutors - The Atlantic

Retail investors love a good story for stocks, as well as love the opportunity to get into some potential growth stories on the ground floor. SPACs were one of the hottest stories in 2020 and 2021 but have fallen out of favor with many companies trading well below the $10 price after mergers have be...

Could Starlink Go Public Via SPAC? Rumors Of Palihapitiya Deal Increase | Markets Insider

Chamath's Reading List

0:00 Amy Howe (@AHoweBlogger) & Tom Goldstein (@SCOTUSblog) join the show to break down the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade 
28:07 Potential downstream impacts from the precedent of overturning Roe v. Wade
43:03 How will the leaked draft impact the Supreme Court going forward? Should there be age limits for SC justices?
1:05:09 Analyzing the path forward

Follow Amy and Tom:
https://twitter.com/AHoweBlogger
https://twitter.com/SCOTUSblog

Follow the besties: 
https://twitter.com/chamath
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
https://twitter.com/friedberg

Follow the pod:
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast

Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:
https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21835435-scotus-initial-draft
https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/ll/usrep/usrep410/usrep410113/usrep410113.pdf
https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/505/833/case.pdf
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/04/abortion-supreme-court-confirmation-hearings
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_Supreme_Court_candidates
https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf/17-1618_hfci.pdf
https://www.wsj.com/articles/abortion-and-the-supreme-court-dobbs-v-jackson-mississippi-john-roberts-11651009292
https://beyer.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=5330
https://www.law.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/ECM_PRO_059254.pdf
https://news.gallup.com/poll/350486/record-high-support-same-sex-marriage.aspx
https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx

#allin #tech #news

E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein

Bestie Guesties

0:00 Bestie catchup and Friedberg intros!
4:40 Breaking down current macro risks, Great Recession comparisons
31:55 How a historically large amount of dry powder is impacting VC firms as the market shifts, problems with mega funds
41:31 Tiger Global's historic loss and where they might have gone wrong; Sacks' gives his playbook for raising capital in a downturn
58:35 How startup employees can protect themselves in a down market, questions to ask and metrics to know while evaluating startups to work at
1:13:21 Psychological impact of investing after taking huge losses
1:29:00 Predictions on how the market shakes out

Follow the besties: 
https://twitter.com/chamath
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
https://twitter.com/friedberg

Follow the pod:
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast

Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:
https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:
https://twitter.com/cullenroche/status/1524441227931774976
https://www.axios.com/2022/04/08/consumer-debt-soars-credit-cards
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm
https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/musk-seeks-to-scrap-tesla-margin-loan-with-new-twitter-funding
https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1523780820112007168
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
https://twitter.com/TheBenSchmark/status/1522669777478684672
https://twitter.com/AndrewE_Dunn/status/1523653942252826624
https://twitter.com/mattturck/status/1524773379416408064
https://twitter.com/jonsakoda/status/1522625236130144256
https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com
https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/10/tiger-global-hit-by-17b-hedge-fund-losses-has-nearly-depleted-its-latest-vc-fund/
https://twitter.com/ZoeSchiffer/status/1523017143939309568
https://twitter.com/BurryArchive/status/1524504399070081025
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/05/04/dow-rallies-fed-ups-rates/9649150002/
https://twitter.com/Airbnb/status/1524379284260892674

#allin #tech #news

E80: Recession deep dive: VC psychology, macro risks, Tiger Global, predictions and more

0:00 Bestie open: Sacks' shopping spree
2:15 Macro outlook: jobs, consumer sentiment, housing, inflation, finding a bottom
39:21 Turkish government finds ~694 million mt of rare earth reserves & EU reclassifies nuclear & natural gas as "green"
48:58 Dutch farmers protests: root causes, how to move forward with smarter legislation
1:09:39 Biden's decline, Bezos responds to Biden's tweet on bringing gas prices down

Follow the besties: 
https://twitter.com/chamath
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
https://twitter.com/friedberg

Follow the pod:
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast

Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg

Intro Video Credit:
https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect

Referenced in the show:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/jolts-job-openings-may-2022-.html
https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/hire-seps-rates.htm
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-job-openings-dip-to-11-3-million-but-labor-market-still-historically-strong-11657122659
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-06/fed-sees-more-restrictive-rates-possible-if-inflation-persists
https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/12/net-international-migration-at-lowest-levels-in-decades.html
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cb-consumer-confidence-48
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-conference-board-june-2022-143536146.html
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/existing-home-sales#chart-existing-home-sales-vs-30yr-rate
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-drops-to-record-low-as-inflation-worries-grip-u-s-11656079725
https://www.forbes.com/sites/darreonnadavis/2022/07/05/88-of-americans-say-us-is-on-wrong-track/
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3525909-56-percent-in-new-poll-believe-us-is-in-recession/
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1544057786065092609
https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101881567/Turkey-Discovers-694-million-mt-of-Rare-Earth-Element-Reserves-with-Infrastructure-Construction-Starting-This-Year/
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/eu-parliament-vote-green-gas-nuclear-rules-2022-07-06/
https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1544380486654590983
https://mobile.twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1544573867804348416
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/eu-parliament-vote-green-gas-nuclear-rules-2022-07-06/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/jpmorgan-sees-stratospheric-380-oil-on-worst-case-russian-cut
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/explainer-dutch-farmers-protesting-emissions-85848026
https://www.amazon.com/The-Alchemy-of-Air-Thomas-Hager-audiobook/dp/B0046Y0BP0/ref=sr_1_1
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_070522/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-22/eurizon-fund-holds-unloved-assets-to-beat-peers-in-esg-market
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/07/uk-boris-johnson-resignation/
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1543263229006254080
https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1543409762867494912
https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1525309091970699265
https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1544370315379109888

#allin #tech #news

E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps

Episodes

33 seconds · Clipped by Nelson Ng · Original video "E78: VC fund metrics that matter, private market update, recession, student loans, Bill Hwang arrest" by ...

All-In Podcast

Challenges